July 6th, 2009

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Stocks slightly underwater on light volume

If it weren’t for the G-8 summit taking place on Wednesday, there would be little reason for traders to come back from the holiday weekend.  There is little economic data scheduled to be released in the coming days, and according to our sources on the floor this may have been the “slowest day all year”.

Perhaps the most interesting development of the day was news of an alleged theft of a proprietary trading method belonging to Goldman Sachs.  If true, it appears as though Goldman’s quant trading desk has  been the victim of a “cyber spy”.  While Goldman seems to downplay any effect that this will have on operations, some are speculating that the revelation of theses “trading secrets” could diminish the effectiveness of the automated system.

Energy stocks, and heavy selling across other commodities, lead the market lower on concerns of a sluggish recovery.  “There is a sense that the fundamentals in the marketplace haven’t caught up with the technical rally that we got in March,” said Dan Deming, a trader with Strutland Equities in Chicago.

The market seems to be highly indecisive, and I can’t say that we have any clearer indication as to what may unfold in the coming days.  However, I suspect that this market will test the May lows before a recovery can unfold.  Therefore,  despite our comment in the previous newsletter targeting the mid to low 880’s; we are looking for a move to the mid to low 870’s in the September S&P before we will consider being bullish.

We also noted the mid-480’s in the September Russell and 1420 in the NASDAQ as target areas.  Each of these predictions became a reality in today’s session but we can’t help but feel like we will see lower before heading higher.    Look for a test of support near 468 and 1390 respectively.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations are based the full sized S&P unless otherwise noted.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

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Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.