Friday, March 19, 2010

Overnight, Asian stocks were higher after yesterday’s good US economic numbers gave confidence about economic recovery.  There were conflicting comments about the Greek situation.  The German Finance Minister said that they should be wary of IMF aid, and a Bundesbank member also made hard line statements about Greece.  On the other side, an EU spokesman said that the EU (including Germany) is ready to help Greece and “work hand in hand with the IMF”.  There was no discount rate hike yesterday, quashing yesterday’s rumor.  There is no economic news out today, but it is quadruple witching day.  That hasn’t been a big deal lately, but keep it in mind.  Eyes will also be on Washington as the gaming continues over the healthcare bull.  Bloomberg is reporting that the Dems are currently short the votes needed.  On the Ag front, Informa is releasing their acreage estimates for the 2010 crop; I believe that’s out at 10 AM.  There’s also a Cattle on Feed out at 2 PM.

June SP:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7); will it move today?  Use yesterday’s high and low as breakout points.

June NASDAQ:  Same Id/NR7 breakout setup as the S&P.

June Dow:  No breakout setup here.  By the TTT today should be a Sell Short day.

June T Bonds:  Buy day; yesterday’s low at 117-18 is the reference price.

June Yen:  There was a big range yesterday, but also a doji, so we could get a directional move today.  Watch trend line support at 1.1025.

June Euro:  Today is a ‘covez4r breakout sales’ day, but there’s no rebound (yet).  The next support is the 3/5 low at 1.3529.

June British Pound:  Selling off out a breakout setup (ID/NR7); it’s currently testing Fib retracement support at 1.5124.

June Canadian Dollar:  Rallying out of a breakout setup (ID/NR7).  It’s currently testing Wednesday’s (and 2010) high at 9930.

June Australian Dollar:  Breakout setup (ID/NR7 and doji).  The upside breakout point is 9164(Weds. high) and 9091 (trend line).

April Gold:  An inside day yesterday, so it’s a bit confusing.  1121.60 is the midpoint of the range for March, so I’m viewing it as a pivot point.

May Silver:  By the TTT today is a Buy day; the reference price is yesterday’s low at 1732.5.  There’s Fib retracement support at 1721.8; there’s also trend line support around there.

May Copper:  Breakout setup (ID/NR4); breakout points are 342.75 up (trend line) and 337.55 (yesterday’s low).  There’s Fib retracement support at 336.30.

May Sugar:  Today is an ‘exit breakout buys’ day; it looks like it’s turning into the Sell Short day that often follows a b.o. buy.  It’s bearish under the 19.00 area; the first downside objective is 18.56.

April Crude Oil:  Yesterday was an NR4 day; so we could get a breakout (directional) move today.  81.60 is the first support area, with a downside target of the 81.10 area.

May Soybeans:  Are we to the Sell Short day?  The 3/10 high at 964-2 is resistance, and there’s trend line support at 955-6.

May Wheat:  Buy day; yesterday’s low at 484-4 is the reference price.  490-4 is the first objective for a rally.

May Corn:  Sell Short day; there’s Fib retracement support at 376-6.

The information contained here includes information from sources believed to be reliable and accurate, but no guarantee is made as to accuracy, nor do they purport to be complete. Opinions are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or commodity options can be substantial, and therefore investors should understand the risks involved in taking leveraged positions and must assume responsibility for the risks associated with such investments and for their results.