Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog

Tuesday, 6.30.09

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst, TraderPlanet.com, LLC

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

It’s an important time for the grain futures markets. Traders today get the latest USDA projections on supply, demand and planted acreage in the U.S. This USDA report is one of the more important grain market reports of the year. The calendar turns to July on Wednesday. That month is the generally the hottest of the year for the Corn Belt, and when rains can become less plentiful in the region. July is when the corn crop progresses through the key pollination stage. Trading next week could be the most important trading week of the year for grains. History shows that existing price trends in grain futures can be reversed the first trading week after the U.S. Independence Day holiday, or can accelerate. –Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Trading is choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Monday’s low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 925.00 and then 935.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 917.55

1st Support:——– 911.10

2nd Support:——– 900.95

1st Resistance:—– 927.70

2nd Resistance:—– 934.20

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,475.00 and then at 1,464.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at Monday’s high of 1,493.00 and then at 1,500.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,480.20

1st Support:—— 1,467.35

2nd Support:—— 1,453.20

1st Resistance:— 1,494.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,507.20

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 8,373. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,500 and then at 8,550. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,436

1st Support:—— 8,395

2nd Support:—— 8,331

1st Resistance:— 8,500

2nd Resistance:— 8,541

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today. The bulls have gained near-term technical momentum recently.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 13/32 and then at Monday’s low of 118 1/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 119 even and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

122 11/32–Previous Month’s high

121 31/32–100-day moving average

119 22/32–second pivot point resistance

119 4/32–first pivot point resistance

119 4/32–previous day’s high

118 19/32–previous day’s close

118 19/32–pivot point

118 1/32–first pivot point support

118 1/32–previous day’s low

117 30/32–4-day moving average

117 16/32–second pivot point support

116 24/32–9-day moving average

115 12/32–18-day moving average

114 12/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 116.23.0 and then at 117.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.07.0 and then at 116.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

120 14/32–previous month’s high

119 5/32–100-day moving average

117 1/32–second pivot point resistance

116 25/32–first pivot point resistance

116 23/32–previous day’s high

116 16/32–previous day’s close

116 14/32–pivot point

116 6/32–first pivot point support

116 4/32–previous day’s low

116 3/32–4-day moving average

115 27/32–second pivot point support

115 13/32–9-day moving average

115 12/32–previous month’s low

114 24/32–18-day moving average

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Trading has turned choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.05 and then at 80.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 79.69 and then at 79.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh three-week high overnight. Bulls have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4066 and then at 1.4000. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4149 and then at 1.4200. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are still bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today. Bulls have gained some fresh upside technical momentum, but need to show more power soon to keep it. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $945.40 and then at last week’s high of $949.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $937.80 and then at Monday’s low of $933.60. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, but have backed well down from the overnight high. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at $72.50. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.95 and then more sell stops just below support at $70.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading, on position evening ahead of this morning’s key USDA report. Grain bulls are still fading. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. Remember that the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday weekend, which is Monday, July 6, will be a very critical trading day in the grains.