Jim Wyckoff’s Morning Blog

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst, TraderPlanet.com, LLC

Thursday, 7.2.09

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are lower crude oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

This morning’s U.S. jobs report may prompt some higher volatility in the financial markets today. However, with the long U.S. Independence holiday weekend ahead, many traders will hit the exit doors early today and trading is likely to quickly thin out after mid-morning. –Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Not much new. Trading remains choppy and lackluster heading into mid-summer. Bulls and bears are still fighting for near-term technical control, with neither able to sustain a price trend the past six weeks.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at this week’s low of 907.40 and then at 900.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 919.60 and then this week’s high of 928.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 925.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 920.40

1st Support:——– 912.55

2nd Support:——– 905.90

1st Resistance:—– 927.10

2nd Resistance:—– 934.90

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at this week’s low of 1,465.00 and then at 1,450.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,479.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,497.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,473.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,483.40

1st Support:—— 1,469.85

2nd Support:—— 1,460.90

1st Resistance:— 1,492.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,505.90

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,400 and then more stops just below support at this week’s low of 8,335. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,448 and then at Wednesday’s high of 8,525. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,512

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,471

1st Support:—— 8,416

2nd Support:—— 8,385

1st Resistance:— 8,502

2nd Resistance:— 8,557

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are weaker in early trading today. The bulls have faded after recent gains and need to show fresh power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 118 even and then at this week’s low of 117 11/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 16/32 and then at this week’s high of 118 27/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 10/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 28/32–100-day moving average

119 4/32–Previous Month’s high

119 3/32–second pivot point resistance

118 22/32–first pivot point resistance

118 14/32–4-day moving average

118 13/32–previous day’s high

118 10/32–previous day’s close

118 1/32–pivot point

117 20/32–first pivot point support

117 13/32–9-day moving average

117 11/32–previous day’s low

116 31/32–second pivot point support

115 28/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 116.14.0 and then at this week’s high of 116.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the this week’s low of 115.21.5 and then at 115.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.20.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 3/32–100-day moving average

116 27/32–second pivot point resistance

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 18/32–first pivot point resistance

116 12/32–previous day’s high

116 12/32–4-day moving average

116 10/32–previous day’s close

116 4/32–pivot point

115 27/32–first pivot point support

115 24/32–9-day moving average

115 21/32–previous day’s low

115 13/32–second pivot point support

115 –18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading has been choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.39 and then at this week’s high of 80.68. Shorter-term support is seen at 80.00 and then at this week’s low of 79.56. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.42. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The September Euro is lower in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.4000 and then at this week’s low of 1.3979. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4100 and then at the overnight high of 1.4152. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4098. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today, amid a stronger U.S. dollar this morning. Prices are in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $942.10 and then at this week’s high of $947.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $931.00 and then at $925.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $69.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $68.74. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $67.68 and then more sell stops just below support at $67.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $71.10. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are still in trouble. Serious damage has been inflicted in corn and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed bearish for corn and soybeans, and for wheat. However, there is talk of a heat dome building over the Corn Belt in mid-July. More of this talk would be bullish for corn and beans. Remember that next Monday, the first trading day after the Fourth of July holiday, will be a very critical trading day in the grains. Look for high volatility next Monday.