Thursday, July 9, 2009

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and a weaker U.S. dollar, which are supporting buying interest in most of the other commodity futures markets today.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Have you noticed the recent rally in U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes? Prices hit fresh six-week highs on Wednesday. While there is a profit-taking pullback today, the bond market bulls have gained good upside technical momentum recently. The rally in U.S. Treasuries also suggests the U.S. stock indexes will see sideways to lower price action in the near term. The rally in Treasuries also suggests the U.S. dollar will see limited selling pressure in the near term. –Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today, on short covering. The bears still have some downside near-term technical momentum, as prices have set multi-week lows this week.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 873.70 and then at Wednesday’s low of 865.50. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Wednesday’s high of 883.30 and then at this week’s high of 898.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 900.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 874.20

1st Support:——– 865.05

2nd Support:——– 856.40

1st Resistance:—– 882.85

2nd Resistance:—– 892.00

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,400.00 and then at Wednesday’s low of 1,393.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,425.00 and then at this week’s high of 1,447.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,435.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,405.00

1st Support:—— 1,394.00

2nd Support:—— 1,381.00

1st Resistance:— 1,418.00

2nd Resistance:— 1,429.00

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,100 and then more stops just below support at Wednesday’s low of 8,038. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at 8,255. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,345

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,106

1st Support:—— 8,048

2nd Support:—— 7,981

1st Resistance:— 8,173

2nd Resistance:— 8,231

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are lower in early trading today, on a corrective pullback from recent gains. The bulls have recently gained some fresh upside near-term technical momentum, but still need to show more power soon.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 120 even and then at Wednesday’s low of 119 13/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at 120 16/32 and then at the overnight high of 120 29/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 17/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

122 16/32–second pivot point resistance

121 22/32–first pivot point resistance

121 19/32–100-day moving average

121 11/32–previous day’s high

120 29/32–previous day’s close

120 18/32–pivot point

119 24/32–first pivot point support

119 16/32–4-day moving average

119 13/32–previous day’s low

119 8/32–Previous Month’s high

118 31/32–9-day moving average

118 20/32–second pivot point support

117 16/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.15.0 and then at Wednesday’s high of 118.23.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at 117.16.0 and then at Wednesday’s low of 117.09.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

119 19/32–second pivot point resistance

119 2/32–first pivot point resistance

118 31/32–100-day moving average

118 23/32–previous day’s high

118 16/32–previous day’s close

118 5/32–pivot point

117 20/32–first pivot point support

117 12/32–4-day moving average

117 9/32–previous day’s low

116 27/32–9-day moving average

116 23/32–second pivot point support

116 23/32–previous month’s high

115 31/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is solidly lower in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 80.50 and then at 81.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.23 and then at 80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is higher in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3900 and then at the overnight low of 1.3858. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at 1.4000 and then at 1.4050. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a corrective bounce from losses on Wednesday and amid a weaker U.S. dollar today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $920.00 and then at $925.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $910.00 and then at this week’s low of $904.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $922.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today, on a short-covering bounce from recent strong losses. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $62.00 and then just above resistance at Wednesday’s high of $62.68. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $60.34 and then more sell stops just below support at $60.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on short-covering and corrective bounces following recent strong selling pressure. Grain bears still have some downside technical momentum on their side. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn, soybeans and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans. The key “outside markets” are bullish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are higher, the U.S. dollar is lower and the U.S. stock indexes are firmer.