Metals Commentary

7-9-09

August gold futures closed down $20.60 at $908.50 yesterday. Prices closed near the session low yesterday and hit a fresh two-month low. Price action yesterday also saw a bearish downside “breakout” from a recent trading range. Gold was pressured yesterday by a firmer U.S. dollar and sharply lower crude oil prices. Bears have gained fresh downside technical momentum. Prices are in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily chart. Bears’ next downside price objective is closing prices below psychological support at $900.00. Gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above solid technical resistanceat $940.00. First resistance is seen at $913.20 and then at $920.00. Support is seen at yesterday’s low of $904.80 and then at $900.00.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.0.

December silver futures closed down 37.4 cents at $12.835 an ounce yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low and hit a fresh two-month low yesterday. The key “outside markets” were bearish for silver futures again yesterday. Crude oil prices were sharply lower, stock indexes were lower and the U.S. dollar was firmer. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at this week’s high of $13.415 an ounce. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at $12.00. First resistance is seen at $13.00 and then at yesterday’s high of $13.09. Next support is seen at yesterday’s low of $12.785 and then at $12.50.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

December N.Y. copper closed down 525 points at 218.65 cents yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low yesterday and hit a fresh two-week low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for copper futures again yesterday. Crude oil prices were sharply lower, stock indexes were lower and the U.S. dollar was firmer. The bulls still have the slight overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 214.95 cents. Bulls’ next upside objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at last week’s high of 237.65 cents. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 215.80 cents and then at 214.95 cents. First resistance is seen at 220.00 cents and then at 225.00 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.5.