Jim Wyckoff’s Futures Commentaries

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst, TraderPlanet.com, LLC

Softs

October sugar closed down 14 points at 17.76 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range and did hit another fresh contract and multi-year high yesterday. Profit-taking pressure was seen yesterday. The general weakness in commodities, including bearish “outside markets”–lower crude oil and U.S. stock indexes and a stronger U.S. dollar–did pressure sugar somewhat. However, the sugar market held up very well yesterday, considering outside pressures. World supply and demand fundamentals are bullish for the sugar market. The sugar bulls still have solid upside technical momentum. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push and close prices above technical resistance at 19.00 cents. Bears’ next downside price objective is to push and close prices below solid technical support at 16.91 cents. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s contract high of 18.09 cents and then at 18.25 cents. First support is seen at 17.50 cents and then at yesterday’s low of 17.38 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 8.0

September coffee closed down 60 points at 119.65 cents yesterday. Prices again closed near mid-range in quieter trading. The key “outside markets” were bearish for coffee futures yesterday, as the U.S. stock indexes were lower, crude oil was solidly lower and the U.S. dollar was stronger. Prices are still in a four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Coffee bulls’ next upside price objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at 125.50 cents. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at 115.00 cents a pound. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of 118.70 cents and then at last week’s low of 117.55 cents. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of 121.70 cents and then at 122.50 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0

September cocoa closed down $38 at $2,515 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low. The key “outside markets” were bearish for cocoa futures yesterday, as the U.S. stock indexes were lower, crude oil was solidly lower and the U.S. dollar was stronger. Bulls and bears are back on a level near-term technical playing field. The next upside price objective for the cocoa bulls is to push and close prices above solid technical resistance at $2,650. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid technical support at last week’s low of $2,426. First resistance is seen at $2,550 and then at last week’s high of $2,594. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of $2,493 and then at $2,450.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 5.0.

December cotton closed up 51 points at 57.48 cents yesterday. Prices closed near mid-range and also scored a bullish “outside day” up on the daily bar chart. Short covering was featured yesterday. The fact that cotton rallied yesterday amid bearish grain markets and bearish outside markets did encourage the bulls, but they have more work to do. Prices are still in a seven-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside price objective for the bears is to produce a close solid technical support at last week’s low of 54.77 cents. The next upside price objective for the bulls is to produce a close above solid technical resistance at 60.00 cents. First resistance is seen at 58.00 cents and then at 58.50 cents. First support is seen at 57.00 cents and then at 56.50 cents.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 4.5.

September orange juice closed up 305 points at $.7940. Prices closed near the session high on short covering in a bear market. FCOJ bears still have the near-term technical advantage. While there are still no early technical clues that a market low is close at hand, strong follow-through buying on Wednesday or Thursday would provide the bulls with fresh upside technical momentum to suggest a market low is in place. Prices still are in a steep four-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. The next downside technical objective for the FCOJ bears is to produce a close below solid technical support at the contract low of $.7270. The next upside price objective for the OJ bulls is pushing prices above solid technical resistance at $.8285. First resistance is seen at $.8000 and then at $.8100. First support is seen at $.7850 and then at $.7750.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 3.0.

July lumber futures closed down $4.80 at $191.00 yesterday. Prices closed nearer the session low, hit a fresh four-week low and closed at a bearish monthly low close. Bears have the solid near-term technical advantage and gained more downside momentum yesterday. A bearish double-top reversal pattern has formed on the daily bar chart. The next upside technical objective for the lumber bulls is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at $200.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is pushing and closing prices below solid support at $180.00. First resistance is seen at yesterday’s high of $195.40 and then at $197.50. First support is seen at yesterday’s low of $189.60 and then at $187.50.

Wyckoff’s Market Rating: 2.5.