Wednesday, October 28, 2009

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OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading is generally lower raw commodity futures prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

The U.S. dollar is firmer again in early trading today. But again, its gains are just modest. There are still no strong early technical clues that the U.S. dollar has bottomed against the other major currencies. A weekly high close in the U.S. dollar index on Friday would provide the greenback bulls with some fresh upside technical momentum to begin to suggest that a market low is in place. –Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today. Bulls are fading. More selling pressure in the near term would suggest the price uptrends in the indexes have rolled over on the daily bar charts.

December S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,050.00 and then at 1,040.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,063.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,089.80. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,045.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————-  1,062.45
1st Support:——– 1,055.10
2nd Support:——– 1,049.75
1st Resistance:—– 1,067.80
2nd Resistance:—– 1,075.15

December Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,700.00 and then at 1,685.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,723.25 and then at 1,735.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,714.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,727.60
1st Support:—— 1,704.20
2nd Support:—— 1,688.60
1st Resistance:— 1,743.20
2nd Resistance:— 1,766.60

December Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,750 and then more stops just below support at 9,700. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 9,800 and then at 9,850. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,725

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR DECEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 9,840
1st Support:—— 9,785
2nd Support:—— 9,735
1st Resistance:— 9,890
2nd Resistance:— 9,945

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today. Bulls have regained some upside near-term technical momentum, but have more work to do to negate the price downtrends in place on the daily bar charts.

December U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 even and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 18/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 3/32

December U.S. T-Bonds

137 23/32–lifetime high
121 27/32–Previous Month’s high
120 11/32–18-day moving average
120 5/32–second pivot point resistance
119 22/32–first pivot point resistance
119 13/32–9-day moving average
119 8/32–previous day’s high
119 6/32–previous day’s close
118 31/32–4-day moving average
118 24/32–pivot point
118 9/32–first pivot point support
117 31/32–100-day moving average
117 27/32–previous day’s low
117 18/32–previous month’s low
117 11/32–second pivot point support
110 –lifetime low

December U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.05.5 and then at 118.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.25.0 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.14.0

December U.S. T-Notes

125 28/32–lifetime high
118 20/32–second pivot point resistance
118 16/32–previous month’s high
118 14/32–18-day moving average
118 8/32–first pivot point resistance
117 30/32–9-day moving average
117 31/32–previous day’s high
117 29/32–previous day’s close
117 21/32–4-day moving average
117 20/32–pivot point
117 8/32–first pivot point support
116 31/32–previous day’s low
116 20/32–second pivot point support
116 18/32–previous month’s low
116 9/32–100-day moving average
107 3/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The December U.S. dollar index is firmer in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 76.84 and then at 77.00. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 76.13 and then at 76.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.73. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

The December Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Prices hit a fresh two-week low overnight. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but are fading a bit. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4839 and then at 1.4800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4839 and then at 1.4900. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4702. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Gold is weaker in early dealings today. Prices hit a fresh three-week low overnight. Bulls are fading. For December gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,042.60 and then at $1,050.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,030.80 and then at $1,025.00. Today’s key near- term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,029.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are weaker early today. In December crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $79.00 and then just above resistance at $80.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $78.66 and then more sell stops just below support at $78.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $78.59. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. Grain bulls are fading fast. Lower closes today would produce more significant chart damage in all the grains, to suggest near-term market tops are in place. Weather in the Corn Belt is still a bullish factor for corn and soybeans, as recent rains and more is in the forecast have seriously delayed corn and soybean harvest progress. However, drier weather is forecast for early next week.