Wednesday, July 8, 2009

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is lower crude oil prices, which hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Prices have dropped around $10.00 a barrel in just over a week’s time.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Evidence is mounting that the “commodity play” that drove raw commodity markets higher the past several months is unwinding. The fact that crude oil and gold prices have been trending lower the past few weeks, while at the same time the U.S. dollar has also been trading sideways to lower, is a warning signal to commodity market bulls.

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning trading today. The bears have some downside near-term technical momentum recently, as prices have set multi-week lows this week.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at Tuesday’s low of 875.50 and then at 865.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at 890.00 and then at 900.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 846.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————- 884.30

1st Support:——– 870.55

2nd Support:——– 861.80

1st Resistance:—– 893.05

2nd Resistance:—– 906.80

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at Tuesday’s low of 1,401.00 and then at 1,385.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at 1,425.00 and then at Tuesday’s high of 1,447.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,333.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,418.65

1st Support:—— 1,390.35

2nd Support:—— 1,372.65

1st Resistance:— 1,436.35

2nd Resistance:— 1,464.65

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Tuesday’s low of 8,095 and then more stops just below support at 8,050. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 8,200 and then at Tuesday’s high of 8,255. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 7,913

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,160

1st Support:—— 8,066

2nd Support:—— 8,000

1st Resistance:— 8,226

2nd Resistance:— 8,320

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are steady to firmer in early trading today. The bulls on Tuesday regained fresh upside near-term technical momentum.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 119 13/32 and then at 119 even. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 25/32 and then at 120 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 120 17/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high

121 20/32–100-day moving average

120 17/32–second pivot point resistance

120 –first pivot point resistance

119 20/32–previous day’s high

119 15/32–previous day’s close

119 8/32–Previous Month’s high

119 3/32–pivot point

119 2/32–4-day moving average

118 21/32–9-day moving average

118 18/32–first pivot point support

118 6/32–previous day’s low

117 21/32–second pivot point support

117 4/32–18-day moving average

111 21/32–previous month’s low

110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Prices poked to a fresh six-week high overnight. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 117.17.5 and then at 117.24.0. Shorter-term moving averages are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.09.0 and then at 117.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.23.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high

118 31/32–100-day moving average

117 29/32–second pivot point resistance

117 18/32–first pivot point resistance

117 12/32–previous day’s high

117 8/32–previous day’s close

117 2/32–pivot point

116 31/32–4-day moving average

116 23/32–first pivot point support

116 23/32–previous month’s high

116 19/32–9-day moving average

116 17/32–previous day’s low

116 7/32–second pivot point support

115 23/32–18-day moving average

112 25/32–previous month’s low

109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is slightly higher in early trading today. Trading is still choppy, but bears still have the overall near-term technical edge. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.12 and then at 81.25. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 81.12 and then at 81.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.67. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The September Euro is slightly lower in early electronic trading. Trading has been choppy. Bulls have faded a bit recently, but still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3858 and then at 1.3800. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3938 and then at 1.4000. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3913. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is lower in early dealings today. Prices are still in a five-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $925.90 and then at this week’s high of $932.40. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $917.60 and then at the June low of $913.20. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $930.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today. Prices hit a fresh six-week low overnight. Serious near-term technical damage has occurred recently in crude oil. In August crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $62.68 and then just above resistance at $63.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $61.87 and then more sell stops just below support at $61.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $62.31. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were narrowly mixed in overnight trading, on some short-covering following strong recorded this week. Grain bears still have fresh downside technical momentum on their side. Serious technical damage has been inflicted in corn, soybeans and wheat recently. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still bearish for corn and soybeans as the key growing month of July is under way. The key “outside markets” are mostly bearish for the grains today, as crude oil prices are lower, the U.S. dollar is steady to firmer and the U.S. stock indexes are near steady.