Looking at some Seasonals for June and Beyond

For the Week Beginning June 8, 2009

It has been a while since I discussed seasonals. If you have been a follower of my work for even a brief period of time then you know that I place great value and emphasis on seasonality in the stock and commodity markets. While I cannot claim that seasonals are the only driving force behind market moves, I do believe that they are a major force that has, in many cases, been uncanny in its accuracy. Indeed there are those who claim that seasonals are useless because “everyone knows them”. This criticism of seasonality is as absurd as it is incorrect. The fact that “everyone” knows something rarely causes most people to change their behavior. Think about it. In the battle of human emotion vs. logic, emotion almost always wins. If logic ruled the markets then the markets would likely cease to exist. If logic ruled the markets we would not be witnessing the largest intraday volatility in market history. Furthermore it is not true that “everyone knows the seasonals”. In fact it is utterly shocking to me that very few traders, investors and professional money managers (all people who should know better), are virtually ignorant of the most reliable and accurate seasonals in existence. Given that this is a situation I cannot correct or even influence in the slightest way I merely accept it and I advise you to give serious attention to seasonals. I have taken seasonal charts for this issue from my www.seasonaltrader.com Website which is an essential resource for literally millions of seasonal patterns in stocks, futures and spreads. Note that these charts are not guarantees but rather they represent the average seasonal tendency for the market and contract month shown. In other words, the chart is a projection, week by week, of the AVERAGE behavior based on the history of the given markets. The full charts at seasonaltrader.com contain the % of time up or down by week. I find these charts to be an incredibly valuable tool in my trading and forecasting work. I hope they help you as well.