January 5th, 2009
New look, new educational content, same honest commentary www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com!
When it rains it pours.
Yields have skyrocketed in recent trading sessions as the flight to quality demand for ultra low return Treasuries has finally dissipated.   The Treasury “bubble” has been a perfect example of a market’s tendency to overshoot fundamentals.  The economic and [...]

December 30th, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
Nothing going on in the pits, but prices moving.
Unlike yesterday, market participants were provided with economic data; as we have been seeing in recent months the news was bond friendly.  Consumer Confidence was reported at a stunningly low level of 38, a far cry from estimates in [...]

December 29th, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
Holiday trade still in effect, volume remains light.
Treasuries were wildly mixed on a lack of economic news and trading volume.  After posting impressive gains early on, the 10-year note futures pared gains as the day progressed. Nonetheless, yields on the short end of the curve traded decisively lower [...]

December 23rd, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
Liquidity absent as traders look forward to Holiday.
Despite a handful of widely followed economic reports, traders weren’t willing to participate in the thinly traded markets.  While some of the liquidity may come back on the Monday following Christmas, we likely won’t see a significant amount of increased interest [...]

December 16th, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
“Shock and Awe” from the Fed.
The Fed shocked the markets with a cut much larger than the expected 50 basis points.  In fact, the Fed didn’t even cut 75 basis points.  Instead, they have announced a new target “range” between 0% and .25%.  With the Fed Funds rate [...]

December 15th, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
The trend is your friend until it ends.
Treasury bonds and notes posted considerable gains…again.  Economic data is a bit sparse, but the news continues to support the uptrend in fixed income products and light volume could help to propel the move.
The New York Empire Index was reported better [...]

December 11th, 2008
Happy Holidays from DeCarley Trading!
Bulls are still in control of Treasury trade.
A decent 10-year note auction and auto-bailout uncertainty kept some of the safe haven buyers in the market.  The massive supply of government issues down the road has yet to become a concern, but must eventually.  In the meantime, light volume [...]

December 9th, 2008
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Notes and Bonds soar, not sour.
Safe haven buying in Treasuries continues to push yields to arguably ridiculous levels, but there is no denying that investors are eager to simply get their principle back.  During the trading day, the three-month T-Bill had a yield of below zero.
The disconnect between the [...]

December 8th, 2008
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New week, but same story.
Interest rate products continue to avoid significant selling pressure despite technical vulnerability.  After trading considerably lower in overnight trade, the Treasury complex pared losses to trade near unchanged for a majority of the session.  Much of the weight on pricing stemmed from news that the [...]

December 2nd, 2008
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The Treasury freight train chugs on.

“There is nothing so disastrous than a rational investment policy in an irrational world” - John Maynard Keynes
U.S. backed fixed income securities have enjoyed one of the largest bull runs in history, yet looking at the COT data it seems that many futures [...]