07.01.09

An even better news day than yesterday with the private ADP jobs forecast possibly opening a window to Thursday’s early release of the Unemployment data at 8:15 am (came in at 473K which, if this is correct, is better than the guesstimates out there for Thursday’s number), the ISM index and then crude oil inventories at 10:30.

Domestic markets closed Friday to observe the 4th on the 3rd.

Metals and equities were hurt yesterday by lower than expected consumer confidence.

Current views, speculations and suggestions (good till close of business today)

Sept Yen: possible reversal day (down)
Sept Swiss: pos with support at 91.77
Sept EC: pos with support at 139.75
Sept Canadian: neg with res at 86.70
Sept BP:  neg with res at 165.40
Sept ES: pos with support at 907.50
Sept NQ: pos with support at 1464
Sept Mini Dow: neg with res at 8488
Aug Gold: positive with daily support of 920
July Silver: pos with support at 13.35
Aug crude: pos with support at 6850
Nov Soybeans: neg with res at 10.23
Sept Wheat: neg with res at 5.62
Sept Ten Year: pos with support at 115.26

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International Markets

Sept Bund:  pos with support at 120.82
Sept Dax: neg with res at 4956
NKD: neg with res at 1098

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using ANY of these numbers use a STOP at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use Stops.  Don’t think about using Stops. Use Stops.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

Interest rates are the driving force in the markets at this time. Yields are creeping up and once again traders are becoming a little nervous about the U.S. ability to pay off its debt obligations.

As interest rates rise, Treasury instruments are weakening. Since rates are expected to rise as long as the Treasury continues to supply the market with notes and bonds, financial futures should remain under pressure. Money that is leaving the falling Treasury markets is jumping into equities.

Although this may not be the best reason to buy stocks, investors almost have no choice but to reallocate their funds to the stock market. Equity indices should continue to rise this week and possibly post a new high for the year. So far the current leg up has been very steady, but the current chart formation suggests the possibility of a sharp spike to the upside.

There are some major investors out there who are not fully committed to the stock market rally. Some have been waiting for “the correction” to enter. Unfortunately with the end of the quarter coming very quickly, some of these investors are underperforming the market. This means they may begin to “chase” the market higher. Don’t be surprised to see a huge move to the upside in equities between now and the end of June if these major players decide that they are missing the move and begin to pay anything to get invested.

The fear of higher interest rates is hurting the Dollar. Traders are leaving the Dollar overnight as once again there is developing sentiment that the U.S. government is going to have a hard time financing its debt obligations. Investors believe that the central bank is going to be forced to keep printing money to keep up with the growing deficit.

Flooding the market with newly printed money is debasing the Dollar and making gold and other commodities more attractive. Despite a vote of confidence by Asian nations that they will continue to buy U.S. Treasuries, they are no doubt taking protection elsewhere against a decline in Dollar-denominated instruments. So while China and Japan may buy our Treasuries, they are also selling the Dollar and buying gold as a hedge.

There is talk this morning that some investors are selling Treasuries and buying IMF bonds. This could be devastating to the Treasury market if a large chunk of available investing capital starts to ignore the Treasury auctions of new supply to buy these IMF instruments.

Continue to watch the auctions the rest of the week to see if the bid remains strong and yields steady. If investment interest in the Treasury auction begins to decline then yields could spike up, further weakening the Dollar.

Please do not hesitate to contact us at 1-800-971-2440, with any questions.

www.brewerfuturesgroup.com

futuresblog@brewerfuturesgroup.com

DISCLAIMER: Futures and options trading involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for every investor. The valuation of futures and options may fluctuate, and, as a result, clients may lose more than their original investment. The impact of seasonal and geopolitical events is already factored into market prices. Prices in the underlying cash or physical markets do not necessarily move in tandem with futures and options prices. In no event should the content of this correspondence be construed as an express or implied promise, guarantee or implication by or from Brewer Futures Group, LLC, Brewer Investment Group, LLC, or their subsidiaries and affiliates that you will profit or that losses can or will be limited in any manner whatsoever. Loss-limiting strategies such as stop loss orders may not be effective because market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders. Likewise, strategies using combinations of options and/or futures positions such as “spread” or “straddle” trades may be just as risky as simple long and short positions. Past results are no indication of future performance. Information provided in this correspondence is intended solely for informational purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.

Jim Wyckoff, Senior Analyst, TraderPlanet.com, LLC

Tuesday- 6.9.09

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

There is no standout market feature in quieter overnight/early morning trading today.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Among traders and investors, there are the believers and the non-believers in the study of technical analysis of market prices. Having studied and written about markets for a quarter-century now, I fall into the believer camp. I do also follow the supply and demand fundamentals of a market, even though I follow too many markets to “drill down” too far on fundamentals of every single market. Recent price action in the markets has confounded many traders and analysts. The supply and demand or economic fundamentals of many markets do not appear to correlate with recent price action. This phenomenon is not uncommon. That’s why the study of technical analysis is employed by most successful traders. By looking at a price chart for a market, and determining the trend (up, down or sideways) a trader knows the market “is what it is.” –Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer in early morning trading today. Bulls still have some near-term technical momentum on their side after prices last week notched fresh multi-month highs. However, the uptrends in the indexes have decelerated as summertime is at hand.

September S&P 500: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9- day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 925.00 and then at last week’s low of 918.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Monday’s high of 941.50 and then at last week’s high of 947.20. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra- day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 917.00.

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER S&P 500:

Pivot:————-  932.55
1st Support:——– 923.60
2nd Support:——– 912.55
1st Resistance:—– 943.60
2nd Resistance:—– 952.55

Nasdaq Index: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at 1,475.00 and then at Monday’s low of 1,465.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is
seen at last week’s high of 1,500.50 and then at 1,515.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,475.00

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR NASDAQ:

Pivot:———— 1,483.75
1st Support:—— 1,470.50
2nd Support:—— 1,451.75
1st Resistance:— 1,502.50
2nd Resistance:— 1,515.75

September Dow: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 8,640 and then more stops just below support at Monday’s low of 8,605. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at last week’s high of 8,742 and then at 8,800. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9- day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 8,558

PIVOT POINT LEVELS FOR SEPTEMBER DOW:

Pivot:———— 8,680
1st Support:—— 8,628
2nd Support:—— 8,553
1st Resistance:— 8,755
2nd Resistance:— 8,807

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes are firmer in early trading today, on a tepid short-covering bounce in a bear market. Bears still have the solid overall near-term technical advantage.

September U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 113 14/32 and then at last week’s low of 112 31/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 114 even and then at 114 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114 26/32

September U.S. T-Bonds

138 27/32–lifetime high
123 28/32–100-day moving average
122 11/32–Previous Month’s high
117 19/32–18-day moving average
115 3/32–9-day moving average
114 30/32–second pivot point resistance
114 12/32–previous day’s high
114 12/32–previous month’s low
114 10/32–4-day moving average
114 4/32–first pivot point resistance
113 18/32–pivot point
113 10/32–previous day’s close
113 –previous day’s low
112 24/32–first pivot point support
112 6/32–second pivot point support
110 8/32–lifetime low

September U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at Monday’s high of 113.26.0 and then at 114.00.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 113.08.0 and then at Monday’s low of 112.31.5. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 114.11.0

September U.S. T-Notes

125 24/32–lifetime high
120 14/32–previous month’s high
120 3/32–100-day moving average
117 5/32–18-day moving average
115 12/32–previous month’s low
115 9/32–9-day moving average
114 14/32–4-day moving average
114 4/32–second pivot point resistance
113 26/32–previous day’s high
113 20/32–first pivot point resistance
113 9/32–pivot point
113 3/32–previous day’s close
112 31/32–previous day’s low
112 25/32–first pivot point support
112 14/32–second pivot point support
109 –lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The September U.S. dollar index is lower in early trading today. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 81.57 and then at Monday’s high of 81.97. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.94 and then at 80.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.41. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

The September Euro is firmer in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3839 and then at Monday’s low of 1.3792. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3953 and then at Monday’s high of 1.3986. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bearish early today. Today’s key
near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4063. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is firmer in early dealings today, as the U.S. dollar has weakened overnight. Gold bulls are fading and do need to show fresh power soon. For August gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at Monday’s high of $961.10 and then at $970.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $948.30 and then at Monday’s low of $943.80. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $945.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls are still technically strong amid an uptrend on the daily bar chart that is still firmly in place. In July crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $70.00 and then just above resistance at last week’s high of $69.55. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $68.43 and then more sell stops just below support at $68.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $67.87. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were firmer in overnight trading. Trading has turned choppier. The key “outside markets” are mostly bullish early today as the U.S. stock indexes are steady to firmer, crude oil prices are higher and the U.S. dollar is lower. Traders are looking ahead to the key USDA supply and demand report, out on Wednesday morning. Weather in the Corn Belt at present is still deemed mostly benign, which does favor the bears. However, the key Fourth of July holiday weekend is approaching, at which time grain price trends can either change, or accelerate.

June 4th, 2009

Carley’s book is being featured on FXStreet.com, check it out!

Market on hold before jobs data

Equity traders were placing small, or no, bets on the Thursday before one of the most anticipated economic reports of the month.  Based on the most recent jobless claims numbers and ADP estimates of tomorrow’ release the job front seems to be stabilizing.  However, the government’s employment report will be the confirmation that the market is looking for.

If you recall, equities rallied sharply on recent news of a dramatic increase in consumer confidence.  That newly optimistic sentiment has yet to be converted into retail sales.  Retail sales were reported to have declined by 4.6%, worse than the expected 3%.  On the contrary, April same store sales were slightly higher but excluding Wal-Mart it would have marked 10 months of declines.  According to John Morris, the results are “a clear indication that the consumer is not stampeding back to the stores, they’re still being very careful.”  He added, I think the initial panic is over, but now the tough work begins.  We’re entering a slow summer period when there’s not a lot to attract consumers.”

In previous writings we mentioned that we think that a reversal in many of the major asset classes was looming (commodities, currencies and interest rates); however, today’s trade humbled us a bit.  Nonetheless, we think that in a post-nonfarm payrolls environment our predictions may become a reality.

As was the case yesterday, we believe that the overall direction of the markets will be lower in the coming weeks.  That said, we also respect the fact that a retest of the recent highs or maybe even slightly new highs could be forged on the economic data released tomorrow, or even early next week.  We like the idea of selling rallies in the coming sessions (for those of you day trading).  Option traders may want to look for opportunities tomorrow on a potential spike high to sell calls, buy puts or both.  Resistance lies at 953 in the S&P with 965 as a possibility.  If this level is seen, we don’t expect it to last.  Russell traders should look for resistance near 537 and NASDAQ bulls should be aware of an obstacle near 1505.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations are based the full sized S&P unless otherwise noted.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

Flat

———-

Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.

06.03.09

ADP private jobs forecast comes in worse than expected at -532K, 40K more than previous month. Of course, we get the US unemployment report on Friday. Then there’s factory orders and the ISM survey at 10 and oil inventories from The Department of Energy at 10.30

Going into today’s session, many markets were at or were approaching overbought levels: stocks, EC, gold, etc.

Fed Chairman testifies at 10.

Euro stocks lower on ideas that rally is outpacing earnings prospects. Euro zone unemployment at 9.2% .

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: neg with res at 105.15
June Swiss: positive with support at 93.45
June EC: pos with support at 141.68
June Canadian: positive with support at 91.50
June BP:  pos with support at 164.00.
June ES: pos with support at 927.50
June NQ: pos with support at 1464
June Russell: pos with support at 518
June Mini Dow: pos with support at 8647
Aug Gold: positive with support at 974.00
July Silver: pos with support at 15.60
July crude: positive with support at 66.90.
July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.90
July Wheat: positive with support at 6.52
June Ten Year: neg with res at 118.01

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International Markets

June Bund: pos with support at 118.75
June Dax: pos with support at 5066
NK: pos with support at 9690

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Use stops.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.

05.27.09

Fairly light news day with Existing Home Sales at 10. Then we have 3 days of treasury auctions. Rates have been backing up. Dec Eurodollars look like a blow-off top after an inexorable rally.

90% of GM bond holders failed to convert their debt to equity which moves GM closer to bankruptcy.

Current views, speculations and suggestions

June Yen: possible reversal day
June Swiss: positive with support at 91.70
June EC: positive with support at 138.74
June Canadian: positive with support at 88.46
June BP:  pos with support at 158.10.
June ES: neg with res at 920.00
June NQ: neg with res at 1435
June Russell: neg with res at 509
June Mini Dow: neg with res at 8566
Jun Gold: positive with support at 938.40
July Silver: pos with support at 14.34
July crude: positive with support at 60.50.
July Soybeans: positive with support at 11.63
July Wheat: positive with support at 6.23
June Ten Year: neg with res at 119.14

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International Markets

June Bund: neg with res at 120.05
June Dax: pos with support at 4860
NK: pos with support at 9313

***********
N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops.  Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.