Friday, December 11, 2009

Read more at TraderPlanet.com

OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are generally higher commodity futures market prices and firmer U.S. stock indexes.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

I saw an interview with Jimmy Rogers on CNBC Thursday afternoon. He’s a respected money manager and author who’s been pretty much right in his forecasts the past few years. Jimmy said on Thursday he believes the U.S. dollar will strengthen in the coming months, mainly due to flight-to-quality into the greenback as events like the Dubai debacle continue to pop up. I agree with Jimmy. If the dollar does strengthen in the coming months, one can extrapolate that crude oil and gold prices will see much less speculative buying support. If the above scenario does develop in the coming months, then it’s also likely that most commodity markets will return to trading more on their own supply and demand fundamentals and focus less on the “outside markets.” A final thought: It’s one thing for a guy like Rogers to predict commodity prices will rise in the coming years, or that the U.S. dollar will rise in the coming months. It’s quite another thing to actually make money trading those notions. Veteran futures market traders know that timing of market entry and exit is everything, regarding achieving success in trading futures markets. Have a good weekend.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Trading has been generally choppy and sideways for the past month. The uptrends in the stock indexes could be in danger of rolling over heading into the new year.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,097.10 and then at 1,090.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at this week’s high of 1,110.50 and then at last week’s high of 1,119.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,099.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,797.00 and then at 1,785.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at last week’s contract high of 1,816.00 and then at 1,825.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,780.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,342 and then more stops just below support at Thursday’s low of 10,327. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 10,385 and then at 10,400. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,323

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker again in early trading today. The bears have fresh downside near-term technical momentum as two-week-old downtrends are in place on the daily charts.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 117 29/32 and then at 117 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 118 11/32 and then at 118 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 even

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
123 –Previous Month’s high
120 13/32–18-day moving average
120 4/32–9-day moving average
120 2/32–second pivot point resistance
119 12/32–previous day’s high
119 7/32–first pivot point resistance
119 4/32–4-day moving average
118 18/32–pivot point
118 15/32–100-day moving average
118 13/32–previous day’s close
117 28/32–previous day’s low
117 23/32–first pivot point support
117 2/32–second pivot point support
116 16/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 118.00.0 and then at the overnight high of 118.05.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at this week’s low of 117.24.5 and then at the December low of 117.18.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.10.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
120 15/32–previous month’s high
119 3/32–second pivot point resistance
118 25/32–9-day moving average
118 22/32–18-day moving average
118 21/32–previous day’s high
118 21/32–first pivot point resistance
118 14/32–4-day moving average
118 6/32–pivot point
118 6/32–previous day’s close
117 24/32–previous day’s low
117 24/32–first pivot point support
117 9/32–second pivot point support
116 15/32–100-day moving average
116 5/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is weaker in early trading today. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Bulls had gained some upside momentum recently, but need to show more power soon. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at this week’s high of 76.66 and then at 77.00. Shorter-term support is seen at 76.20 and then at 76.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 76.25. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

The March Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage, but have faded. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4704 and then at this week’s low of 1.4662. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4772 and then at 1.4800. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are bullish early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4818. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a short-covering bounce following recent strong losses, and amid a weaker U.S. dollar today. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at $1,148.40 and then at 1,160.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,131.70 and then at $1,125.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,128.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are slightly higher early today, on a short-covering bounce.. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $71.20 and then just above resistance at $72.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at the overnight low of $70.33 and then more sell stops just below support at this week’s low of $69.81. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.20. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading. The key outside markets are in a slightly bullish posture early today: a weaker U.S. dollar, firmer U.S. stock indexes and firmer crude oil prices. It appears corn traders are more fully realizing the bullish significance of 10% of the U.S. crop that is still standing in the field after a major winter storm hit the Midwest this week. Soybeans are still overall bullish but wheat is still overall near-term bearish.