Friday, December 18, 2009

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OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher crude oil prices and firmer U.S. stock index prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices have seen an impressive rebound this week, after setting a fresh two-month low on Monday. However, a two-month-old downtrend line is still in place on the daily bar chart. Still, a bullish weekly high close in crude oil prices on Friday would begin to suggest a near-term low is in place in crude oil.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are firmer in early morning trading today. Not much new in the indexes as the year winds down. Prices are still in an overall choppy and sideways trading range at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage in the indexes.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at the overnight low of 1,093.60 and then at this week’s low of 1,090.80. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at Friday’s high of 1,106.30 and then at this week’s high of 1,113.00 and then at the December high of 1,119.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,099.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Shorter-term technical support is located at the overnight low of 1,784.75 and then at Thursday’s low of 1,774.00. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. On the upside, short-term resistance is seen at the overnight high of 1,894.75 and then at Thursday’s high of 1,801.75. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,791.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at Thursday’s low of 10,248 and then more stops just below support at 10,200. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 10,330 and then at 10,350. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,381

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are near steady in early trading today. The bulls did regain some near-term upside technical momentum with Thursday’s solid gains. However, bulls have more work to do to suggest a new uptrend can be sustained.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are still bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at the overnight low of 118 23/32 and then at 118 16/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 8/32 and then at 119 16/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118 11/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
123 –Previous Month’s high
120 2/32–second pivot point resistance
119 26/32–18-day moving average
119 18/32–first pivot point resistance
119 2/32–previous day’s high
119 1/32–previous day’s close
118 21/32–100-day moving average
118 17/32–pivot point
118 16/32–9-day moving average
118 1/32–4-day moving average
118 1/32–first pivot point support
117 17/32–previous day’s low
117 –second pivot point support
116 16/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bullish early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.08.0 and then at 118.18.0. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 117.28.5 and then at 117.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 117.27.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
120 15/32–previous month’s high
118 25/32–second pivot point resistance
118 16/32–18-day moving average
118 15/32–first pivot point resistance
118 5/32–previous day’s high
118 4/32–previous day’s close
117 30/32–9-day moving average
117 26/32–pivot point
117 17/32–4-day moving average
117 16/32–first pivot point support
117 6/32–previous day’s low
116 27/32–second pivot point support
116 21/32–100-day moving average
116 5/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is slightly lower in early trading today, on a mild corrective pullback from recent solid gains. Prices hit a fresh three-month high Thursday. Bulls still have some upside momentum to suggest a market bottom is in place. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral to bearish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at Thursday’s high of 78.28 and then at 78.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 77.74 and then at 77.57. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 77.95. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The March Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Bulls have faded recently to suggest a market top is in place. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.4302 and then at 1.4250. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.4409 and then at 1.4450. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.4287. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

GOLD

Gold is near steady in early dealings today, amid a steady U.S. dollar. For February gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,111.60 and then at 1,120.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at $1,000.00 and then at this week’s low of $1,095.70. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,108.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are higher early today. Bulls have had a very good week. In January crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at the overnight high of $74.32 and then just above resistance at $75.00. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $73.00 and then more sell stops just below support at the overnight low of $72.47. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $73.96. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce from solid losses on Thursday. Also, the key outside markets are in a mostly bullish posture for the grains today: steady to weaker U.S. dollar, firmer U.S. stock indexes and higher crude oil prices. Thursday’s market action showed how much influence the outside markets have over the grains at present. Weekly USDA export sales data for corn and soybeans was fully bullish, but corn and soybean futures ignored that data and focused on the bearish outside markets Thursday.