Monday, February 8, 2010

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OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market features in overnight/early morning trading today are higher gold prices and weaker U.S. stock index futures prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Those of you who’ve followed me for a while know that I’m a conservative trader/analyst. My mission is to steer you away from trouble as much as it is to steer you toward sound trading ideas. When someone in this industry tells me they “know” a market is going to do something, I “know” they must be inexperienced or at least a border-line huckster. I think the best any honest industry professional can do is, based upon their knowledge and experience, provide their customers their biases or strong biases about what a market might do at some point in time. Here are my biases at present: Gold, silver and copper have put in major market tops. U.S. Stock indexes will grind in a sideways pattern in the coming weeks. The U.S. dollar will trend sideways to higher in the coming weeks. Grains have a bit more on the downside before they become buying opportunities. Crude oil prices will chop in a sideways trading range in the coming weeks.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on some follow-through selling pressure from strong losses posted late last week. Near-term chart damage has been inflicted in the stock indexes, and near-term price downtrends are now in place

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is below the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,050.00 and then at last week’s low of 1,041.00. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,066.70 and then at 1,075.00. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,064.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are bearish early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day and 18-day. The 9-day average is below the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,753.25 and then at 1,765.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,730.00 and then at 1,720.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,740.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 9,900 and then more stops just below support at 9,850. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 9,950 and then at Friday’s high of 9,985. Shorter-term moving averages are bearish early today, as the 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is below the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 9,975

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are weaker in early trading today, on a pullback from solid gains posted late last week. The bulls did gain some fresh technical momentum late last week, but need to show more power very soon to keep it.

March U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4- 9- 18-day) are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 119 even and then at the overnight low of 118 25/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 119 9/32 and then at last week’s high of 119 18/32. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 119 24/32

MARCH U.S. T-Bonds

136 23/32–lifetime high
120 11/32–second pivot point resistance
119 30/32–first pivot point resistance
119 18/32–previous day’s high
119 16/32–previous day’s close
119 6/32–Previous Month’s high
119 4/32–pivot point
118 23/32–first pivot point support
118 20/32–100-day moving average
118 17/32–4-day moving average
118 14/32–9-day moving average
118 11/32–previous day’s low
117 31/32–18-day moving average
117 29/32–second pivot point support
114 22/32–previous month’s low
110 3/32–lifetime low

March U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 118.24.5 and then at last week’s high of 118.30.5. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 118.14.0 and then at 118.00.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 118.11.0

MARCH U.S. T-Notes

123 13/32–lifetime high
119 16/32–second pivot point resistance
119 5/32–first pivot point resistance
118 30/32–previous day’s high
118 27/32–previous day’s close
118 20/32–pivot point
118 9/32–first pivot point support
118 9/32–previous month’s high
118 6/32–4-day moving average
118 2/32–previous day’s low
118 –9-day moving average
117 24/32–second pivot point support
117 20/32–18-day moving average
117 8/32–100-day moving average
114 31/32–previous month’s low
110 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The March U.S. dollar index is near steady in early trading today. Bulls still have near-term upside technical momentum. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are neutral early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at the overnight high of 80.66 and then at last week’s high of 80.82. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.28 and then at 80.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 81.14. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.0

The March Euro is slightly higher in early electronic trading. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at the overnight low of 1.3621 and then at last week’s low of 1.3584. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3714 and then at 1.3750. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3758. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

GOLD

Gold is higher in early dealings today, on a short-covering bounce from heavy losses suffered late last week. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,074.30 and then at 1,080.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,065.40 and then at $1,060.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,075.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 6.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are near steady early today, following strong losses late last week that produced serious near-term chart damage. In March crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $72.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $72.39. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $71.00 and then at $70.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $72.74. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.0

GRAINS

Prices were higher in overnight trading, on a short-covering bounce from recent selling pressure. Grain market bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as the “February Break” phenomenon plays out. The key “outside markets” are in a neutral posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is near steady, as is crude oil prices, while U.S. stock indexes are weaker. Would-be bottom pickers and bargain hunters in the grains should still beware.