Tuesday, March 9, 2010

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OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING DEVELOPMENTS

The market feature in overnight/early morning trading today is a stronger U.S. dollar index and lower crude oil and gold futures prices.

JIM’S MARKET THOUGHT OF THE DAY *

Crude oil prices are under selling pressure today, after having pushed above $82.00 a barrel on Monday. While no near-term chart damage has occurred with today’s sell off, recent history does show that crude oil market rallies have petered out when prices push above $80.00 a barrel.–Jim

U.S. STOCK INDEXES

The U.S. stock indexes are weaker in early morning trading today, on a profit-taking pullback from recent good gains. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage as four-week-old uptrends are in place on the daily bar charts.

S&P 500 futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4-, 9- and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Today, shorter-term technical support comes in at 1,125.00 and then at Friday’s low of 1,121.90. Sell stops likely reside just under those levels. Upside resistance for active traders today is located at the overnight high of 1,137.20 and then at Monday’s high of 1,140.60. Buy stops are likely located just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,107.00.

Nasdaq index futures: The shorter-term moving averages (4- 9-and 18-day) are still bullish early today. The 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day average is above the 18-day. Short-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are bearish early today. Shorter-term technical resistance is located at the overnight high of 1,888.75 and the nat Monday’s high of 1,895.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. On the downside, short-term support is seen at 1,875.00 and then at 1,865.00. Sell stops are likely located just below those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1,851.00

Dow futures: Sell stops likely reside just below support at 10,475 and then more stops just below support at 10,450. Buy stops likely reside just above technical resistance at 10,550 and then at Monday’s high of 10,575. Shorter-term moving averages are bullish early today, as the 4-day moving average is above the 9-day. The 9-day moving average is above the 18-day moving average. Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral to bearish early today. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 10,416

U.S. TREASURY BONDS AND NOTES

U.S. T-Bonds and T-Notes futures are firmer in early trading today, on short covering. Trading has turned choppy again.

June U.S. T-Bonds: Shorter-term moving averages (4-9- 18-day) are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Shorter-term technical support lies at 116 16/32 and then at the overnight low of 116 9/32. Sell stops likely reside just below those levels. Shorter-term technical resistance lies at the overnight high of 116 25/32 and then at 117 even. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116 22/32

JUNE U.S. T-Bonds

126 14/32–lifetime high
118 2/32–Previous Month’s high
117 3/32–9-day moving average
117 2/32–4-day moving average
116 28/32–second pivot point resistance
116 24/32–100-day moving average
116 21/32–previous day’s high
116 20/32–first pivot point resistance
116 14/32–pivot point
116 13/32–previous day’s close
116 12/32–18-day moving average
116 7/32–previous day’s low
116 6/32–first pivot point support
116 –second pivot point support
114 15/32–previous month’s low
109 15/32–lifetime low

June U.S. T-Notes: Shorter-term oscillators (RSI, slow stochastics) are neutral early today. Buy stops likely reside just above shorter-term technical resistance at 117.08.0 and then at 117.16.0. Shorter-term moving averages are neutral early today. The 4-day moving average is below the 9-day. The 9-day is above the 18-day moving average. Sell stop orders are likely located just below support at the overnight low of 116.26.0 and then at 116.16.0. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 5.5

Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 116.24.0

JUNE U.S. T-Notes

120 9/32–lifetime high
117 16/32–previous month’s high
117 7/32–4-day moving average
117 7/32–9-day moving average
117 6/32–second pivot point resistance
117 1/32–previous day’s high
117 1/32–first pivot point resistance
116 28/32–pivot point
116 28/32–previous day’s close
116 24/32–18-day moving average
116 23/32–previous day’s low
116 23/32–first pivot point support
116 18/32–second pivot point support
116 4/32–100-day moving average
113 18/32–previous month’s low
109 29/32–lifetime low

CURRENCIES

The June U.S. dollar index is higher in early trading today. Trading has become choppy and sideways at higher price levels. Bulls still have the overall near-term technical advantage. Slow stochastics for the dollar index are bullish early today. The dollar index finds shorter-term technical resistance at 81.20 and then at 81.50. Shorter-term support is seen at the overnight low of 80.72 and then at Monday’s low of 80.39. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 80.83. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 6.0

The June Euro is weaker in early electronic trading. Bears still have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices trade in a choppy and sideways pattern at lower price levels. Euro finds sell stop orders are likely located just below technical support at 1.3529 and then at 1.3500. Shorter-term technical resistance for the Euro is seen at the overnight high of 1.3635 and then at Monday’s high of 1.3702. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Slow stochastics for the Euro are neutral early today. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: 1.3665. Wyckoff’s Intra Day Market Rating: 4.5

GOLD

Comex gold futures are lower in early dealings today. Bulls are fading a bit. Prices remain in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart, however. For April gold, shorter-term technical resistance is seen at the overnight high of $1,125.10 and then at 1,130.00. Buy stops likely reside just above those levels. Sell stops likely reside just below support at the overnight low of $1,115.30 and then at $1,110.00. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $1,107.00. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

CRUDE OIL

Crude oil prices are lower early today on profit-taking pressure from recent gains. Prices are still in a four-week-old uptrend on the daily bar chart. In April crude, look for buy stops to reside just above resistance at $81.00 and then just above resistance at the overnight high of $81.77. Look for sell stops just below technical support at $80.00 and then at $79.50. Today’s key near-term Fibonacci support/resistance level: $80.39. Wyckoff’s Intra-Day Market Rating: 4.0

GRAINS

Prices were lower in overnight trading. The key “outside markets” are in a bearish posture for the grains today, as the U.S. dollar index is higher, while crude oil, gold and the U.S. stock index futures prices are lower. Grain market bears have the near-term technical advantage. Traders are awaiting Wednesday morning’s USDA supply and demand report.