The Stock Index Report

July 1st, 2009

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Stocks tepidly higher in pre-employment report trade

The day was chock full of mixed economic data, but equities found a way to trade higher.  Coming into the day, statistics pointed toward a positive trading session as the first trading day in July has historically had good outings.  Not surprisingly, it seems as though mutual funds were on the buy side of the markets in early to mid-session trade; however, the buying quickly dried up.

Richard E. Cripps, chief market strategist for Stifel Nicolaus commented on the day’s action, “Some of the buying that wasn’t’ done yesterday is being done today,” he added, “I’m a little surprised.  There isn’t a lot of convincing volume here to read too much into this.”

News on the day included ADP’s prediction of tomorrow’s employment report.  According to the payroll firm, the U.S. economy has lost over 470,000 jobs in the most recent month.  Most analysts are expecting the government to report a number closer to 400,000.  The ISM manufacturing index was reported slightly better than expected and so were pending home sales.  The mixed news puts even more emphasis on tomorrows data.

It was apparent from the “get-go” that many traders have already begun their long holiday weekend.  Those that did stick around for today’s session, will likely make their departure after tomorrows employment report.  Accordingly, tomorrow will likely see very little trading volume; scaling back on your trading is recommended.

Going into tomorrow, we aren’t taking any bold stances.  It seems as though there are equally likely odds that the market will go down tomorrow as there are that it will go up.  On a larger scale, we see resistance near 950 and support at 890 in the S&P with the 920 area as the pivot…If we had to pick a direction, we would say lower from here, but we wouldn’t be willing to put much more on the line than a friendly bet between friends.

Likewise, we see strong resistance in the Russell near 535 and support at 487 but have little opinion as to what the next day or two will bring.  Resistance in the NASDAQ should be found near 515 and support at 1417.

If you have missed this newsletter in recent days, we apologize for the inconvenience.  Unfortunately, we have limited time and sometimes have to prioritize.  Keep in mind that clients of DeCarley Trading were, and are always, welcome to contact us for guidance above and beyond this newsletter.  If you aren’t already trading with us, perhaps you should be.

* Due to time constraints and our fiduciary duty to put clients first, the charts provided in this newsletter may not reflect the current session data.  However, market analysis and commentary does.  Charts provided by Track ‘n Trade, Gecko software.

**Seasonality is already be factored into current prices, any references to such does not indicate future market action.

Please note: A mini S&P chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, but trade recommendations are based the full sized S&P unless otherwise noted.

S&P 500 Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Russell Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Please note: A mini-NASDAQ chart is used because it is better for charting purposes, trade recommendations will denote whether a mini or full sized contract should be used.

NASDAQ Futures and Options Trading Recommendations

**There is unlimited risk in naked option selling and futures trading

Position Trade -

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Carley Garner
Senior Analyst / Commodity Broker
DeCarley Trading
cgarner@DeCarleyTrading.com
1-866-790-TRADE
Local : 702-947-0701

www.CarleyGarnerTrading.com
www.DeCarleyTrading.com

*Due to the volatile nature of the futures markets some information and charts in this report may not be timely.

There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options.

Past performance is not indicative of future results.  The information and data in this report were obtained from sources considered reliable.  Their accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed and the giving of the same is not to be deemed as an offer or solicitation on our part with respect to the sale or purchase of any securities or commodities.  Any decision to purchase or sell as a result of the opinions expressed in this report will be the full responsibility of the person authorizing such transaction.