1.14.09

Retail sales came in worse than expected at -2.7% due to rising unemployment.  Of course the universal expectation was for a grim number so there was a sense of resignation more than anything else.  Crude inventories from API and DOE will probably induce some short covering ahead of their release at 10:35. Yesterday, the balance of trade improved but for all the wrong reasons. The latest wrinkle to the Madoff affair is that the IRS may have to refund his investors taxes paid on profits that were never earned.

Current views, speculations and suggestions

Mar Yen: positive with support at 111.50
Mar Swiss: neg with res at 90.25
Mar EC:  neg with res at 134.30
Mar Canadian: neg with res at 82.80
Mar BP:  neg with res at 149.80
Mar ES: pos with support at 859
Mar NQ: neg with res at 1232
Mar Russell: pos with support at 460.40
Mar Mini Dow: neg with res at 8560
Mar Silver: positive with support at 10.45
Feb gold:  neg with res at 839
Feb crude:  neg with res at 41.10

Longer term spread idea: from 12.22 we are long April crude at 44.90 and short Dec crude at 52.50 for a differential of 7.60.  On 1.07 could have bought April at 52.10 and sold Dec at 59.83 for 7.73.

Mar Soybeans:  pos with support at 9.57
Mar Wheat: positive with support at 5.447
Mar Ten Year: positive with support at 125.16

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International Markets

Mar Euro Bund: positive with support at 124.76
Mar Dax: neg with res at 4712
Mar NK: neg with res at 8598

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N.B.: if you initiate a trade using any of these numbers use a stop at least equivalent to 2 ½%. Repeat: use stops. Don’t think about using stops. Use stops.

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Futures trading entails considerable risk and is not for everyone. An account can lose more than its initial investment. Stops are not necessarily filled at the stop level. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.